Pharos
Pharos ships a binary prediction-market CPMM (PharosMarket/PharosFactory, Solidity 0.8.24) with complete-set escrow and a proven solvency invariant (totalCollateral==outstandingYes==outstandingNo), USDC-settled on Arc, that posts a separate framework probability on-chain via updateFrameworkProb so edgeBps compares model vs crowd. It is backed by a quant pricing engine (FastAPI + pandas/scipy with point-in-time nowcasts, pillar z-scores, and shrink-to-0.5 calibration) and three Python web3 agents, creator, pricer, and oracle, that sign real Arc transactions, with the oracle resolving on official BLS/BEA/Fed data. A Next.js 14 / wagmi / viem dual-price market card surfaces crowd vs model pricing.
Economic Intelligence, Macro Strategy, & Cross-Asset Trading.
1 (Solo) — Bob Sheehan
Macro prediction markets on Arc, priced by the Lighthouse Macro framework. Two numbers on every contract: the crowd's, and the model's. Agora Agents hackathon (Circle × Arc × Canteen).